Could an earthquake shift the balance in Myanmar’s civil war?

Summary

The article discusses Myanmar's ongoing civil war amidst the aftermath of a devastating March earthquake. While the earthquake has not decisively ended military rule, it has delivered a psychic blow to leaders, with some seeing it as divine punishment. The conflict persists, with armed groups like the Kachin Independence Army and ethnic forces still active despite attempts at peace talks. The military faces challenges from displaced populations and internal divisions, with some questioning its legitimacy post-earthquake.

Additional Summaries

An earthquake in Myanmar has claimed over 3,600 lives and caused thousands more injuries, amplifying an already volatile crisis that has left the nation's infrastructure in ruins while testing its fragile political stability. Without immediate aid and rebuilding efforts, the nation’s progress will be stalled. Compounding instability remains as the country grapples with both the aftermath of natural disaster and its ongoing internal conflict.

The 2015 earthquake in Myanmar intensified its ongoing civil war by bolstering public superstitious beliefs against the military leader's leadership, weakening his image and government control despite the natural disaster. International aid and criticism further eroded the military's authority as a ceasefire paves the way for rival groups to gain momentum, with violence likely intensifying post-disaster.

Myanmar remains gripped by a civil war and after four years of fighting the military regime finds itself increasingly encircled. According to the NUG, the Myanmar military’s aerial and artillery attacks killed at least 72 civilians between the quake striking on March 28 until April 8. “In the long term, the earthquake is unlikely to fundamentally shift the balance of power in Myanmar,” he said. AdvertisementIn a country where astrology and superstition guide the highest political decisions, many interpret the natural disaster as a cosmic rebuke against Myanmar’s military leadership. Given the scale of the quake, it would likely affect the civil war – “but in ways that are hard to predict”, he said.