Australia’s two-party system is in long-term decline: what does it mean for how we view elections?

Australia's political landscape is shifting dramatically as independent and minor party candidates are increasingly contesting seats that were once dominated by major duopolies like Labor and the Coalition. Vote shares for these leading parties have plummied from 68% in the 1980s to a projected 43% today, with more crossbench members now challenging the status quo. This growing influence of minor parties is not only altering election dynamics but also making traditional models like the pendulum framework less reliable, potentially paving the way for minority governments and significant voter shifts on election night.