Placating China won't prevent it from invading Taiwan

japantimes.co.jpPublished: 4/28/2025

Summary

Surveys reveal growing mistrust among Taiwanese residents about China's intentions in the Taiwan Strait, with a recent poll showing that 34.7% believe supporting the U.S. would prompt a Chinese invasion, down slightly from 2023 but still alarmingly high. This shift suggests many Taiwanese view China as an irrational adversary, ignoring realist logic that ties defense costs to geopolitical realities. Such perceptions threaten Taiwan's ability to deter mainland incursions, as the risks of U.S. intervention far outweigh the belief it would prevent a Chinese attack.